* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/20/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 45 40 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 45 40 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 51 49 47 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 18 23 35 37 53 62 76 87 87 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 208 217 222 224 232 233 230 221 222 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.8 29.7 30.3 29.5 28.2 27.3 26.3 25.4 23.7 23.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 146 154 164 170 162 148 138 128 116 98 98 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.4 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 5 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 48 46 44 44 49 44 39 29 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 17 15 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 41 67 84 78 68 19 12 30 8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 110 86 69 77 8 -4 14 13 -25 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 326 245 195 168 7 -297 -376 -222 -182 -186 -324 -310 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.3 23.1 25.0 26.9 28.8 30.5 31.4 32.7 33.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.5 109.8 109.0 107.7 106.4 104.2 101.2 99.2 96.3 94.2 93.7 91.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 13 15 14 15 15 14 13 8 7 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 21 27 50 52 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 10. 7. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -19. -32. -49. -68. -81. -88. -94. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -8. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -28. -35. -46. -60. -78. -94.-103.-107. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/20/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/20/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY