* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/21/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 74 78 82 84 83 79 72 64 56 51 48 V (KT) LAND 65 70 74 78 82 84 83 79 72 64 56 51 48 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 73 76 79 82 83 81 77 73 68 63 61 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 4 6 6 9 14 16 17 20 19 10 3 SHEAR DIR 45 63 63 68 80 248 261 271 259 281 306 310 1 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 143 142 142 140 139 137 135 134 134 134 134 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 64 62 58 56 49 48 40 41 39 42 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 -10 -17 -16 -20 -10 0 -25 -24 -39 -46 -63 200 MB DIV 50 47 34 36 23 1 7 -8 3 -24 -42 -3 10 LAND (KM) 936 914 908 897 894 898 923 957 979 1030 1106 1194 1280 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.9 16.7 17.4 18.1 19.2 20.2 21.0 21.9 22.6 23.3 23.8 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 164.8 165.6 166.4 166.9 167.3 167.9 168.5 169.0 169.3 169.8 170.5 171.3 172.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 48 33 30 32 68 54 41 18 13 13 30 25 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 18. 14. 7. -1. -9. -14. -17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/21/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/21/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY