* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/21/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 52 46 37 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 52 39 31 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 54 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 24 34 38 46 57 68 70 84 77 64 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 222 230 224 228 246 237 229 221 224 240 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 29.1 29.9 30.3 30.1 28.7 27.6 26.7 26.0 24.0 23.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 157 165 169 168 154 142 132 123 101 99 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.9 -54.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 51 45 47 49 43 42 31 23 16 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 14 12 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 70 81 73 77 52 21 15 17 3 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 77 62 78 55 -17 -10 17 4 -44 -43 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 257 230 150 4 -141 -480 -286 -183 -153 -302 -338 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.4 22.1 23.1 24.0 26.1 28.0 29.9 30.9 32.4 32.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.7 108.5 107.3 106.3 105.3 102.2 100.2 97.3 95.1 94.7 92.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 15 15 14 13 9 7 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 33 55 44 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 9. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -22. -35. -52. -70. -83. -91. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 16. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -9. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -20. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -9. -18. -26. -37. -54. -74. -89. -97.-102. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/21/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/21/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY