* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/21/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 84 88 90 89 86 78 73 65 62 54 50 V (KT) LAND 75 80 84 88 90 89 86 78 73 65 62 54 50 V (KT) LGE mod 75 81 84 87 88 88 85 80 75 70 66 62 59 SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 6 7 12 18 20 18 19 20 24 13 SHEAR DIR 63 21 45 78 193 255 259 273 254 265 279 300 313 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 142 142 139 137 135 134 134 134 133 131 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -54.8 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 64 63 57 57 53 49 45 42 40 39 40 41 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 9 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -8 -19 -24 -20 -18 4 -15 -14 -8 -7 -21 32 200 MB DIV 43 27 42 37 33 24 12 -12 -12 -4 60 3 48 LAND (KM) 917 900 895 885 882 885 928 970 1009 1054 1135 1178 1210 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.8 20.9 21.7 22.5 23.2 23.9 24.6 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 165.7 166.3 166.9 167.2 167.5 168.0 168.7 169.2 169.6 170.0 170.7 171.0 171.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 32 68 63 32 31 14 13 18 28 23 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -4. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 15. 14. 11. 3. -2. -10. -13. -21. -25. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/21/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/21/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY