* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/21/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 92 97 100 99 94 86 76 69 62 55 52 49 V (KT) LAND 85 92 97 100 99 94 86 76 69 62 55 52 49 V (KT) LGE mod 85 91 95 96 96 91 84 76 70 66 63 60 57 SHEAR (KT) 4 7 6 9 14 23 29 17 20 13 13 3 8 SHEAR DIR 7 29 71 241 252 268 274 275 279 293 308 331 209 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 142 141 138 135 133 132 131 129 125 123 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 51 49 47 43 41 41 44 47 51 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -5 -16 -17 -15 -6 1 -26 -23 -1 -4 -21 -42 200 MB DIV 36 52 35 29 13 32 -7 23 -17 -31 0 13 21 LAND (KM) 916 892 876 865 862 892 896 922 956 988 1007 1039 1080 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.6 21.2 22.4 23.2 24.0 24.8 25.8 26.5 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 166.4 166.8 167.1 167.4 167.7 168.4 168.5 168.7 168.9 169.0 168.8 168.8 168.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 5 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 68 62 45 28 12 16 20 9 6 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 15. 14. 9. 1. -9. -16. -23. -30. -33. -36. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/21/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/21/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY