* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/22/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 108 105 101 90 77 67 57 50 42 35 27 V (KT) LAND 105 108 108 105 101 90 77 67 57 50 42 35 27 V (KT) LGE mod 105 107 106 102 97 87 76 67 59 54 49 45 38 SHEAR (KT) 2 5 12 17 19 29 24 27 18 19 9 9 37 SHEAR DIR 80 235 251 253 254 261 259 268 282 282 341 114 211 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 139 138 135 132 130 128 126 121 113 102 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -55.0 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 5 2 2 700-500 MB RH 57 54 51 52 50 45 46 47 46 43 46 57 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 13 13 13 11 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -14 -20 -20 -9 -5 -29 -22 -17 -25 -47 -40 -25 200 MB DIV 54 60 41 45 53 37 24 -18 -15 10 17 11 66 LAND (KM) 828 805 790 776 771 773 783 782 786 801 862 928 1041 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.1 22.5 23.8 24.9 25.7 26.7 28.0 29.4 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 166.7 166.9 167.0 167.1 167.2 167.3 167.2 166.8 166.4 165.8 165.3 164.3 162.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 32 59 51 41 36 31 22 10 5 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -18. -25. -31. -36. -40. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 0. -4. -15. -28. -38. -48. -55. -63. -70. -78. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/22/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/22/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY