* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/22/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 102 100 94 81 71 59 54 43 29 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 105 105 102 100 94 81 71 59 54 43 29 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 103 99 94 88 76 65 56 49 44 38 33 28 SHEAR (KT) 11 14 25 21 23 28 27 22 21 28 19 6 27 SHEAR DIR 234 261 260 271 255 267 263 284 276 304 325 232 205 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.3 24.5 23.3 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 137 135 132 130 124 121 116 108 96 75 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.7 -53.4 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 8 6 5 3 3 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 51 49 47 52 50 50 49 48 50 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 16 15 13 13 11 12 10 7 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -22 -24 -12 -2 -27 -17 -19 11 3 -9 -34 53 200 MB DIV 71 76 64 68 25 10 -14 0 10 0 31 44 63 LAND (KM) 772 733 700 679 669 662 646 673 715 808 947 1177 1458 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.4 22.2 24.0 25.6 26.9 27.9 29.2 30.7 32.8 35.3 LONG(DEG W) 166.6 166.5 166.4 166.4 166.3 165.9 164.8 163.8 162.9 161.8 160.4 159.3 158.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 7 7 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 57 49 41 35 32 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -19. -26. -33. -39. -44. -49. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -16. -18. -19. -19. -22. -24. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -1. -4. -8. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -5. -11. -24. -34. -46. -51. -62. -76. -86. -95. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/22/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/22/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY