* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/22/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 79 74 67 59 50 42 30 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 84 79 74 67 59 50 42 30 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 84 78 73 68 59 50 43 37 32 27 23 19 SHEAR (KT) 21 24 27 27 29 33 33 31 36 26 9 43 62 SHEAR DIR 255 266 258 252 260 262 290 289 298 301 233 211 219 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.2 24.3 23.0 21.7 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 135 133 132 129 125 121 115 106 93 79 67 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.6 -54.3 -55.1 -54.9 -55.5 -56.0 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 4 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 52 51 47 43 44 51 52 52 53 49 52 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 17 18 17 14 14 12 10 7 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -7 -1 -14 -35 -30 -27 -5 9 -10 26 3 -35 200 MB DIV 71 68 41 43 7 -6 3 18 10 48 66 75 43 LAND (KM) 706 645 597 568 555 540 584 680 825 1001 1246 1499 1736 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.3 22.1 22.9 23.7 25.2 26.7 28.1 29.6 31.2 33.2 35.1 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 166.4 166.0 165.6 165.3 164.9 163.8 162.6 161.4 160.3 158.8 156.8 154.8 152.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 43 35 31 14 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -18. -24. -29. -34. -40. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -24. -28. -31. -31. -37. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -9. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -23. -31. -40. -48. -60. -68. -75. -84. -98. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/22/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/22/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY