* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/23/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 71 65 61 52 43 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 75 71 65 61 52 43 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 76 72 68 63 54 45 37 29 23 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 25 27 28 28 32 34 34 51 54 46 34 44 51 SHEAR DIR 257 252 265 254 264 290 272 265 263 269 240 210 230 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.5 25.7 24.8 23.6 22.2 20.6 19.1 16.9 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 133 132 129 121 112 99 85 68 62 62 62 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -53.3 -54.3 -55.8 -57.0 -57.5 -57.0 -56.5 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 44 43 42 49 54 54 59 61 62 62 65 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 14 14 13 10 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -22 -37 -41 -32 0 10 2 5 70 86 107 148 200 MB DIV 41 20 8 6 -13 26 46 48 59 78 117 94 79 LAND (KM) 639 609 604 600 621 735 903 1111 1339 1582 1836 1784 1573 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 28.2 30.2 32.2 34.2 36.2 38.2 40.4 42.9 LONG(DEG W) 166.0 165.7 165.3 164.7 164.1 162.7 161.2 159.6 158.0 156.3 154.5 152.7 150.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 33 13 8 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -17. -24. -31. -38. -43. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -26. -35. -45. -51. -58. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -15. -19. -28. -37. -52. -64. -79. -92.-101.-111. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/23/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/23/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY