* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952009 10/23/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 45 44 40 34 28 17 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 32 29 31 26 27 24 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 32 29 32 28 27 25 20 SHEAR (KT) 5 9 12 16 11 11 12 36 43 66 89 93 98 SHEAR DIR 301 34 24 27 50 205 236 216 228 225 211 227 262 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.6 26.9 25.2 19.1 16.1 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 156 156 158 155 146 124 110 82 79 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 138 140 142 141 140 136 128 110 99 78 77 80 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -54.3 -54.2 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -56.4 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 51 56 55 50 49 45 53 53 51 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -7 -8 -10 7 47 36 16 -10 13 20 32 19 200 MB DIV -25 -14 -2 -1 27 33 37 38 41 85 111 118 9 LAND (KM) 110 127 126 130 159 45 -57 -17 64 -59 -39 246 494 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.3 23.8 25.1 26.7 28.6 30.9 33.9 37.6 40.8 42.3 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 76.3 77.0 77.9 78.7 80.0 80.7 80.9 80.8 79.6 76.1 67.7 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 9 9 9 8 9 10 13 19 29 42 50 HEAT CONTENT 69 57 43 42 48 88 41 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 8. 3. -4. -12. -20. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 20. 19. 15. 9. 3. -8. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952009 INVEST 10/23/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952009 INVEST 10/23/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY