* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/23/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 53 48 45 39 34 25 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 58 53 48 45 39 34 25 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 59 54 51 47 41 36 32 28 25 22 18 DIS SHEAR (KT) 23 28 25 29 29 26 32 34 17 24 46 60 66 SHEAR DIR 247 257 251 255 273 277 284 285 267 230 222 231 254 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.0 25.4 24.5 23.4 21.4 18.6 15.4 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 131 129 123 117 108 97 78 64 66 67 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.6 -54.7 -55.6 -56.4 -56.8 -56.6 -57.3 -58.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 7 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 41 42 44 52 51 54 54 52 59 62 67 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 15 15 15 12 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -23 -23 -16 -8 5 19 32 64 84 134 190 55 200 MB DIV 18 20 12 -9 -7 43 41 16 45 103 100 106 43 LAND (KM) 609 590 585 590 608 697 792 945 1145 1447 1806 1614 1377 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.3 24.0 24.8 25.5 27.5 28.9 30.6 32.5 35.2 38.3 41.7 45.9 LONG(DEG W) 165.7 165.4 165.1 164.8 164.4 163.3 162.3 161.1 160.0 158.4 156.7 154.1 148.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 13 16 18 25 30 HEAT CONTENT 28 10 8 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -21. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. -20. -25. -33. -45. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 15. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -17. -20. -26. -31. -40. -42. -48. -60. -69. -80. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/23/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/23/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY