* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952009 10/23/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 39 44 46 44 36 31 29 23 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 39 44 46 44 32 29 30 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 40 43 43 33 29 26 23 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 13 15 11 10 12 37 55 70 73 57 61 SHEAR DIR 347 27 35 59 131 259 226 251 239 243 243 267 266 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.5 26.0 23.6 24.8 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 157 159 160 159 161 157 145 118 104 112 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 142 144 146 146 142 143 138 128 110 102 110 100 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -54.4 -55.0 -55.0 -55.6 -56.1 -57.1 -57.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 5 4 3 2 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 54 58 51 53 51 48 54 54 51 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 1 0 12 38 21 24 -14 -19 -25 -12 -10 7 200 MB DIV -15 0 14 27 29 33 42 41 13 -21 7 24 76 LAND (KM) 103 89 64 72 47 107 128 142 132 -167 -38 792 1404 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.3 22.6 23.0 23.3 24.2 25.3 26.7 28.6 31.6 35.1 36.8 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 75.8 76.8 77.8 78.9 80.0 81.5 82.8 83.9 84.7 84.1 77.2 62.3 43.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 10 10 11 10 8 8 9 12 23 47 68 76 HEAT CONTENT 71 63 40 71 54 87 9 14 13 19 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 7. 1. -7. -14. -19. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 14. 19. 21. 19. 11. 6. 4. -2. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952009 INVEST 10/23/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952009 INVEST 10/23/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY