* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/23/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 42 38 35 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 42 38 35 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 47 41 38 35 29 26 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 23 23 27 29 30 25 24 23 19 19 8 6 13 SHEAR DIR 254 247 252 267 274 281 286 288 262 248 206 312 278 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.2 24.3 22.9 21.3 20.1 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 131 131 130 126 122 115 106 93 77 62 60 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.4 -54.6 -55.1 -55.3 -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 38 41 45 47 50 49 46 46 44 46 41 34 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 11 8 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -21 -13 -10 -4 9 -6 -2 -43 -21 -46 -141 -132 200 MB DIV 25 8 -20 -16 -5 6 8 -13 38 84 18 8 13 LAND (KM) 583 587 599 587 586 628 661 812 1000 1241 1563 1842 1955 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.3 26.6 27.7 29.4 31.2 33.3 35.6 37.3 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 165.4 165.3 165.2 164.8 164.3 163.5 162.1 161.0 159.4 157.9 154.4 151.4 151.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 12 15 17 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 10 9 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -8. -8. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -15. -14. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -17. -20. -27. -34. -40. -45. -50. -56. -59. -60. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/23/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/23/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY