* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952009 10/24/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 39 44 44 42 39 33 23 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 39 44 44 42 39 33 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 36 36 34 31 27 24 SHEAR (KT) 8 14 16 16 11 2 22 29 44 59 72 95 87 SHEAR DIR 18 55 74 137 191 268 220 231 248 260 263 259 257 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 28.9 27.9 26.0 24.0 22.3 21.4 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 157 158 158 158 151 137 117 103 95 92 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 142 143 142 140 140 136 123 106 95 89 88 90 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -54.5 -55.7 -56.1 -57.1 -58.2 -57.1 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 7 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 59 57 53 52 49 45 53 67 76 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -8 5 31 26 21 18 -18 -71 -82 -47 23 115 200 MB DIV -29 -2 22 28 22 18 56 44 16 96 122 36 48 LAND (KM) 106 96 91 128 145 16 49 245 133 286 465 578 812 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.6 23.0 23.6 24.1 25.6 27.8 30.5 33.4 36.4 39.0 40.8 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 76.1 77.1 78.1 78.9 79.6 80.1 79.9 78.8 76.7 72.6 66.2 57.4 46.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 9 8 9 13 16 19 26 32 38 41 HEAT CONTENT 69 60 65 77 46 10 14 38 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 4. -2. -8. -16. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 19. 19. 17. 14. 8. -2. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952009 INVEST 10/24/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952009 INVEST 10/24/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY