* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/24/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 45 41 37 31 24 19 18 31 26 23 18 V (KT) LAND 55 50 45 41 37 31 24 19 18 31 26 23 18 V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 49 46 43 37 33 29 27 25 22 18 DIS SHEAR (KT) 26 30 30 28 25 26 20 14 10 27 16 17 30 SHEAR DIR 242 255 267 272 276 272 285 269 253 173 153 338 276 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.0 24.0 22.7 21.0 20.1 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 130 130 129 127 122 113 103 91 73 61 60 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 40 44 47 47 48 47 49 47 50 49 44 44 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 9 5 3 3 16 18 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -17 -13 -9 -5 -9 -27 -51 -59 22 13 -37 -9 200 MB DIV 25 -28 -30 -9 23 40 -3 34 61 48 52 41 16 LAND (KM) 579 584 594 585 586 630 706 864 1037 1255 1539 1746 1864 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.8 25.3 26.3 27.9 29.7 31.5 33.5 35.8 37.2 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 165.3 165.2 165.1 164.7 164.3 163.9 162.7 161.9 160.5 159.4 156.3 153.9 155.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 6 7 10 10 11 14 15 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 9 8 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -17. -20. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 10. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -15. 5. 7. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -24. -31. -36. -37. -24. -29. -32. -37. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/24/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/24/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY