* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/24/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 48 47 43 37 33 31 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 48 47 43 37 33 31 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 52 50 47 43 39 38 37 34 25 15 DIS SHEAR (KT) 29 33 31 26 25 24 15 12 14 57 98 67 23 SHEAR DIR 238 254 261 261 262 261 288 264 220 226 242 265 316 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.2 25.9 24.6 22.7 18.3 13.5 10.6 10.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 130 128 128 124 122 111 93 67 68 70 70 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -55.8 -57.0 -58.3 -54.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 44 46 49 49 48 46 48 58 67 62 46 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 12 13 14 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -20 -15 -8 2 -5 -6 55 127 49 6 -20 16 200 MB DIV -19 -17 6 42 23 -4 -17 47 112 65 39 -29 -31 LAND (KM) 564 566 577 579 584 654 705 928 1257 1818 1371 955 132 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.3 25.6 26.9 27.8 30.3 33.5 38.5 44.0 49.7 56.5 LONG(DEG W) 165.0 164.8 164.5 164.3 164.0 163.5 162.9 161.9 160.3 157.6 153.9 149.8 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 5 6 9 15 22 29 31 41 50 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 6 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. -21. -41. -63. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 19. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -3. -8. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -8. -12. -18. -22. -24. -35. -58. -78. -79. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/24/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/24/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY