* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/24/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 44 42 41 35 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 44 42 41 35 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 45 43 40 36 33 31 28 24 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 32 30 27 27 23 18 12 15 30 47 55 80 71 SHEAR DIR 253 255 251 256 263 272 325 204 223 216 245 288 262 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.2 23.0 19.8 15.9 12.9 11.4 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 129 129 126 124 117 96 65 67 69 64 64 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.5 -54.4 -54.8 -55.4 -56.4 -57.1 -58.4 -60.1 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 45 46 46 45 44 45 50 58 69 72 80 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 15 15 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -5 1 9 6 -25 10 82 135 126 45 44 144 200 MB DIV -6 11 35 33 55 -28 34 82 73 84 38 53 24 LAND (KM) 520 550 583 569 564 684 833 1191 1646 1646 1335 746 623 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.5 26.0 27.3 29.3 32.8 37.0 41.1 46.3 49.4 52.8 LONG(DEG W) 164.4 164.5 164.5 163.9 163.3 163.4 162.3 161.4 158.4 156.2 148.1 139.5 141.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 6 8 15 21 23 30 36 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -5. -9. -12. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -11. -20. -33. -50. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 18. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -4. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -9. -15. -23. -26. -32. -42. -54. -71. -86. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/24/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/24/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY