* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/24/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 43 41 38 32 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 43 41 38 32 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 45 42 40 35 32 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 32 26 30 29 27 20 16 26 56 110 104 46 28 SHEAR DIR 259 254 257 258 266 297 315 214 223 240 262 274 333 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.5 23.8 20.4 15.3 11.3 9.6 8.8 7.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 128 127 125 119 104 71 67 69 70 65 66 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.9 -55.8 -56.1 -56.7 -57.4 -54.8 -54.2 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 43 44 39 43 45 43 53 68 74 75 76 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 -1 3 -2 -3 71 188 89 52 107 74 -49 200 MB DIV -3 15 34 31 -13 -13 50 103 84 53 48 40 -101 LAND (KM) 510 561 614 599 603 807 1055 1567 1575 1044 619 -208 -334 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.3 26.9 28.7 31.6 36.3 41.7 46.9 53.6 56.7 61.1 LONG(DEG W) 164.0 164.2 164.3 163.5 162.6 163.2 161.1 160.2 156.6 154.7 143.4 130.1 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 10 8 12 20 27 28 37 45 22 24 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -13. -16. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -19. -43. -74. -90. -94. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 21. 31. 38. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -12. -18. -27. -32. -43. -66. -93.-101.-102. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/24/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/24/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY