* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/25/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 35 33 31 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 35 33 31 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 39 38 35 32 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 29 34 29 24 16 32 27 74 77 76 50 38 20 SHEAR DIR 260 272 273 299 313 209 189 195 226 233 247 299 294 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.0 23.8 21.6 15.1 10.8 9.2 4.5 2.1 0.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 128 129 124 104 84 69 69 70 70 67 69 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -54.1 -56.0 -51.9 -53.8 -58.8 -57.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 38 39 40 38 58 56 69 72 62 82 66 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -12 -26 -33 -71 14 18 224 135 146 187 -1 0 200 MB DIV 6 4 -15 -34 5 113 92 78 71 9 107 42 82 LAND (KM) 556 752 946 852 787 1240 1427 1567 944 333 -659 -666 111 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.6 26.4 27.1 27.8 31.2 35.0 41.6 48.2 55.4 63.7 64.0 71.0 LONG(DEG W) 164.4 166.1 167.8 166.1 164.4 167.0 160.9 160.8 153.5 152.7 131.0 105.0 110.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 18 7 17 12 19 29 36 37 50 61 28 36 HEAT CONTENT 6 11 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -9. -12. -14. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -16. -34. -60. -81. -91. -96. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 21. 29. 38. 47. 54. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -18. -28. -43. -63. -75. -80. -81. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/25/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/25/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY