* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/25/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 36 34 38 31 35 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 36 34 38 31 35 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 40 39 37 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 33 26 21 13 11 55 46 75 98 109 73 20 N/A SHEAR DIR 271 277 272 280 282 199 187 215 276 315 292 306 N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.2 25.6 22.5 16.6 11.5 10.3 6.9 4.7 -0.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 131 129 122 94 69 70 70 68 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -53.6 -55.8 -54.7 -59.1 -58.9 -56.6 -58.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 37 36 40 39 60 55 68 83 72 74 53 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 9 6 5 10 9 19 17 14 12 19 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -33 -43 -40 -27 124 162 187 83 18 65 -29 N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -1 2 17 47 135 108 85 54 -17 16 34 N/A LAND (KM) 556 760 965 882 852 1364 1714 1100 400 -644 -957 -111 N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.3 25.9 27.2 28.4 33.0 40.3 45.9 54.0 55.6 60.4 69.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.4 166.4 168.3 166.5 164.6 166.2 158.5 157.7 139.0 119.6 118.7 105.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 19 10 21 18 32 36 48 63 32 38 50 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -7. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -6. -18. -39. -74.-104.-108.-119. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 29. 38. 50. 50. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -1. -3. 11. 9. 5. 2. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -7. -14. -10. -28. -65. -91. -77. -91. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/25/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/25/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY