* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/26/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 32 32 29 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 32 32 29 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 31 30 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 13 16 21 18 12 17 72 89 84 29 23 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 283 286 270 213 193 222 253 278 235 268 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 25.9 24.9 22.7 20.4 14.1 10.5 10.1 5.8 3.4 -0.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 116 94 72 69 70 70 66 70 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -55.3 -53.6 -53.7 -57.8 -55.3 -56.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 33 35 41 49 48 71 86 74 80 72 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -69 -76 0 106 34 113 216 141 84 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 16 29 95 100 76 61 101 46 21 125 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 690 703 829 1115 1401 1567 971 185 -763 -755 388 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 27.8 29.6 32.1 34.6 42.0 47.5 56.0 57.2 63.2 73.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 165.0 162.9 160.7 161.5 162.2 154.9 155.1 137.4 119.0 124.2 115.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 26 22 26 33 35 45 58 25 41 53 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 2. -12. -38. -58. -71. -80. -89. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 22. 31. 44. 56. 57. 56. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. -6. -8. -15. -32. -40. -42. -52. -64. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/26/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/26/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY