* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/26/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 27 24 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 27 24 26 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 25 9 23 39 34 75 18 41 35 30 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 303 287 329 192 314 238 289 279 285 214 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 25.4 24.2 21.6 16.6 13.3 8.5 1.4 2.7 -0.1 1.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 126 111 87 70 70 70 70 70 N/A 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 -57.9 -49.6 -57.6 -60.5 -57.4 -60.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 23 13 26 53 54 81 63 53 55 69 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -89 -157 -113 161 -71 189 -73 0 -111 70 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 0 -7 63 64 59 27 -5 -11 5 -87 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 799 704 1186 1384 1826 1021 337 -600 -674 -511 1518 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 28.3 29.6 34.1 38.6 46.6 56.2 64.6 59.3 65.4 71.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 165.5 157.4 149.3 155.1 160.9 141.0 150.9 109.6 76.6 74.7 17.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 37 72 31 66 45 47 63 90 41 68 103 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 806 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -10. -27. -47. -62. -71. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 16. 31. 48. 62. 73. 74. 73. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. -6. -4. -6. -10. -18. -24. -33. -44. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/26/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/26/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY