* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/27/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 30 30 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 30 30 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 14 24 51 55 57 66 75 47 50 29 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 198 185 180 187 210 242 258 288 307 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 23.9 22.2 19.7 16.9 13.0 10.4 10.3 9.3 6.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 104 89 68 66 69 70 65 67 69 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.5 -50.9 -46.7 -49.3 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 48 56 56 60 59 68 54 40 54 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 92 182 211 180 106 143 217 116 -45 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 118 92 78 65 40 19 19 -103 -18 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 929 1105 1288 1520 1803 1468 959 535 317 -379 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 30.6 32.4 35.4 38.3 42.5 49.5 52.2 56.5 63.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 165.3 165.6 165.8 163.9 162.0 160.9 150.1 139.2 142.6 141.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 25 33 27 36 43 21 28 35 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 980 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -14. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. -6. -24. -46. -67. -86. -96.-106. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 17. 24. 34. 46. 47. 46. 43. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 12. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -19. -34. -46. -62. -74. -87. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/27/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/27/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY