* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962009 11/01/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 51 51 49 46 40 36 31 35 32 23 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 51 51 49 46 40 36 31 35 32 23 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 50 50 49 46 44 43 41 39 38 39 SHEAR (KT) 16 26 29 34 30 19 26 37 49 49 54 43 41 SHEAR DIR 89 51 36 8 336 291 279 286 282 278 282 288 293 SST (C) 25.7 25.3 24.8 24.2 23.9 22.2 13.9 6.1 11.5 10.6 12.9 15.1 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 105 101 99 90 71 68 71 70 72 74 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 98 93 90 88 81 68 67 69 69 69 71 73 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -57.0 -56.7 -56.5 -56.0 -55.8 -54.4 -52.7 -51.1 -52.1 -53.3 -54.3 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 36 35 42 57 61 66 72 72 66 53 50 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 25 22 19 15 12 8 11 13 27 32 29 850 MB ENV VOR 132 121 86 70 78 53 22 0 -9 -13 -11 -18 -37 200 MB DIV -21 18 10 16 18 13 22 21 30 5 -16 -34 -5 LAND (KM) 1667 1506 1350 1171 993 728 388 313 809 1463 940 479 288 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.7 33.7 35.3 36.9 40.1 43.2 46.7 50.3 52.5 52.2 49.8 46.1 LONG(DEG W) 53.1 54.6 56.1 56.5 56.8 55.6 53.3 48.9 42.1 33.2 24.1 16.1 9.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 16 16 17 21 26 29 28 28 28 30 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -13. -12. -1. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -5. -9. -14. -10. -13. -22. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962009 INVEST 11/01/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962009 INVEST 11/01/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY