* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962009 11/01/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 52 51 50 48 43 35 40 49 45 37 24 V (KT) LAND 50 52 52 51 50 48 43 35 40 49 45 37 24 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 52 51 50 48 46 43 43 42 43 44 45 SHEAR (KT) 32 30 36 42 39 26 29 32 27 32 43 51 18 SHEAR DIR 39 36 4 350 343 325 329 314 263 249 250 257 264 SST (C) 25.3 24.8 24.5 24.2 24.0 23.4 18.9 7.8 12.5 10.5 11.9 13.2 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 110 105 101 99 98 96 80 69 72 70 70 70 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 92 88 85 85 85 75 68 70 69 68 67 67 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -56.6 -56.5 -55.7 -55.5 -55.4 -54.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.8 -51.4 -51.0 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 34 36 40 51 54 59 69 72 73 63 51 39 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 22 20 19 15 13 10 19 33 33 30 23 850 MB ENV VOR 116 83 80 71 79 25 6 32 65 48 -5 26 103 200 MB DIV 0 12 -1 7 3 19 28 19 54 35 3 21 3 LAND (KM) 1476 1346 1206 1115 1027 859 566 378 876 1490 926 441 72 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.5 34.3 35.3 36.2 38.5 41.6 45.7 50.0 52.8 54.3 54.6 54.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 56.8 58.1 58.1 58.1 56.0 53.1 48.4 41.1 32.4 24.2 16.7 10.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 10 9 11 17 23 30 31 28 23 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 19 CX,CY: -15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -5. 5. 6. 3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -7. -15. -10. -1. -5. -13. -26. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962009 INVEST 11/01/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962009 INVEST 11/01/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY