* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962009 11/02/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 48 46 44 40 33 28 36 37 33 28 17 V (KT) LAND 50 50 48 46 44 40 33 28 36 37 33 28 17 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 49 47 45 42 39 38 38 37 38 41 46 SHEAR (KT) 37 42 46 47 36 27 32 33 77 74 38 27 18 SHEAR DIR 40 11 348 340 315 318 307 262 225 215 210 194 182 SST (C) 25.0 24.6 24.4 24.1 23.8 22.6 12.6 4.6 7.3 6.2 5.7 5.7 6.6 POT. INT. (KT) 106 103 101 99 97 93 71 69 69 66 63 60 60 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 90 87 85 85 83 69 68 68 65 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.1 -55.5 -54.7 -54.9 -53.7 -51.7 -50.7 -50.5 -49.3 -48.2 -49.0 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 42 49 53 55 63 65 65 68 73 77 75 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 21 20 19 16 13 9 9 23 27 24 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 99 86 89 69 45 35 74 140 141 164 233 190 109 200 MB DIV 31 -15 -10 5 7 25 49 77 95 113 73 -19 -49 LAND (KM) 1387 1258 1130 1034 943 711 340 174 708 1105 1165 1123 1202 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.0 34.8 35.9 36.9 39.6 43.7 49.0 54.4 58.8 61.9 63.2 63.3 LONG(DEG W) 56.7 57.7 58.7 58.6 58.5 57.0 54.6 50.7 45.3 41.2 40.1 39.2 37.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 11 12 19 26 31 28 20 11 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -16. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -11. -1. 2. -1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -22. -14. -13. -17. -22. -33. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962009 INVEST 11/02/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962009 INVEST 11/02/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY