* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 11/03/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 28 30 33 37 38 38 38 38 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 28 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 11 12 16 13 12 9 14 8 8 16 13 10 14 SHEAR DIR 248 252 250 260 276 257 253 215 231 220 230 247 249 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 144 145 143 143 146 151 154 154 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 137 138 139 138 137 139 144 145 144 143 143 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.8 -52.8 -53.6 -52.6 -53.7 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 6 6 7 5 7 4 6 5 7 4 700-500 MB RH 78 74 77 79 79 80 82 80 78 77 76 77 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 47 64 62 68 75 83 70 92 73 82 75 200 MB DIV 58 49 58 58 56 77 82 95 70 90 58 82 58 LAND (KM) 103 109 123 129 124 50 -63 -171 -167 -163 -111 -55 -64 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.7 12.4 12.9 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.1 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 81.7 81.8 82.1 82.4 83.3 84.2 85.1 86.1 86.9 87.5 88.2 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 43 40 38 42 47 20 52 22 22 29 0 0 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. -20. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 11/03/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 11/03/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY