* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 11/03/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 35 34 32 30 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 27 27 27 27 30 26 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 23 25 26 27 29 25 26 27 SHEAR (KT) 9 15 14 13 11 16 17 21 17 19 26 26 21 SHEAR DIR 256 251 264 282 264 230 238 222 223 227 212 216 216 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 145 144 144 147 152 154 153 154 151 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 140 141 139 139 141 146 145 143 142 138 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 8 6 7 5 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 74 76 79 78 77 81 79 82 79 81 74 69 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 40 58 59 58 73 88 90 93 107 98 92 97 200 MB DIV 44 58 68 70 65 63 86 100 98 99 87 63 51 LAND (KM) 147 153 160 156 113 -23 -151 -174 -59 37 -47 -106 -124 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.5 13.4 14.2 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.6 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 81.5 81.8 82.3 82.7 83.8 84.9 86.1 87.1 87.9 88.7 89.2 90.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 42 37 41 44 41 50 0 25 0 12 88 88 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 11/03/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 11/03/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY