* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 11/04/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 34 34 34 34 31 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 29 28 30 29 27 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 26 28 26 25 22 SHEAR (KT) 13 14 11 8 12 11 19 19 18 20 21 23 25 SHEAR DIR 247 255 259 257 232 200 210 241 238 255 252 252 253 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 145 145 143 143 145 146 150 152 153 152 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 139 139 137 137 137 137 141 142 142 139 131 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 8 7 7 7 5 7 5 6 4 6 700-500 MB RH 77 79 77 77 80 79 82 80 80 79 81 77 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 32 41 53 60 64 67 56 52 54 40 57 41 43 200 MB DIV 53 66 49 51 68 66 69 41 74 56 71 47 43 LAND (KM) 150 195 218 227 179 97 21 -82 -50 72 181 80 -27 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.9 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.5 17.6 18.6 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.1 81.3 81.7 82.0 82.6 83.3 84.0 84.7 85.5 86.1 86.8 87.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 38 36 38 42 6 2 0 77 83 84 81 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 6. 5. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 11/04/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 11/04/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY