* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 11/04/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 30 27 23 22 21 19 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 28 27 29 25 23 24 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 28 23 19 22 25 SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 11 13 14 27 29 34 34 25 22 31 SHEAR DIR 253 262 273 240 250 250 235 239 246 262 268 248 239 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 143 143 144 146 149 152 154 150 143 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 139 137 137 137 139 141 143 144 139 131 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 5 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 80 77 75 78 77 75 79 76 80 75 72 67 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 54 59 62 71 64 66 56 49 53 36 49 36 200 MB DIV 70 53 44 40 32 64 54 68 61 54 64 37 47 LAND (KM) 175 204 228 187 140 54 -55 -86 53 145 28 -103 -14 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.3 13.1 14.0 15.1 16.3 17.5 18.6 19.7 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 81.0 81.3 81.6 82.0 82.3 83.0 84.0 84.9 85.8 86.6 87.3 88.4 89.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 37 41 35 7 55 0 50 80 75 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -6. -12. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -3. -4. -6. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 11/04/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 11/04/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY