* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972009 11/04/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 38 39 39 38 34 32 31 30 27 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 14 15 23 24 31 32 22 20 32 28 SHEAR DIR 267 261 239 243 238 229 230 224 243 253 224 207 214 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 144 144 149 154 155 155 153 150 145 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 138 139 138 143 147 147 146 143 139 133 131 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.6 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 6 7 5 7 5 7 6 9 7 700-500 MB RH 78 75 77 77 78 82 80 76 72 69 64 61 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 55 59 69 74 91 74 68 76 95 64 79 56 200 MB DIV 52 41 45 38 46 79 69 109 65 75 30 61 57 LAND (KM) 200 137 71 0 -71 -196 -161 -123 -34 -70 -163 -22 88 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.4 18.4 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 81.9 82.5 83.0 83.6 84.2 85.4 86.6 87.7 88.7 89.4 90.3 91.2 92.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 45 13 0 50 23 27 24 85 0 0 36 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 4. 2. 1. 0. -3. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972009 INVEST 11/04/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972009 INVEST 11/04/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY