* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 11/04/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 22 23 25 28 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 22 23 25 28 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 26 26 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 21 20 24 25 31 33 31 23 21 23 25 25 SHEAR DIR 217 229 232 225 227 217 213 215 214 189 190 161 149 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 153 156 157 158 158 157 155 154 153 151 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 4 6 4 7 6 9 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 80 80 82 82 79 77 68 63 61 59 56 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 81 77 81 77 75 71 71 47 41 23 44 47 200 MB DIV 103 92 90 64 45 67 53 85 97 94 55 77 38 LAND (KM) 306 309 316 331 347 400 455 447 433 445 472 501 525 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 91.2 91.7 92.2 92.7 93.2 94.2 95.1 95.7 96.2 96.5 96.9 97.3 98.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 0 1 9 39 48 48 42 37 26 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 21. 28. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. -18. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 6. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 11/04/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 11/04/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY