* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/04/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 57 59 60 59 60 59 60 60 60 60 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 57 59 39 31 28 27 27 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 55 57 59 42 32 28 27 27 30 34 39 SHEAR (KT) 8 14 11 14 16 15 17 15 12 10 11 9 9 SHEAR DIR 268 234 253 253 250 255 256 276 302 323 343 354 15 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 143 142 142 145 145 146 149 151 154 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 135 135 134 133 135 133 134 137 141 144 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 6 7 7 8 7 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 75 77 79 79 77 81 78 76 75 75 72 74 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 55 68 69 70 76 61 55 74 79 78 58 56 200 MB DIV 44 35 30 46 52 57 95 95 82 81 76 54 69 LAND (KM) 153 115 76 36 0 -54 -107 -140 -117 -66 16 162 188 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.3 16.0 17.3 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 82.3 82.6 82.9 83.2 83.5 84.0 84.5 84.7 84.8 85.0 85.5 85.7 85.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 43 38 13 4 2 54 0 0 0 76 0 86 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 15. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/04/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/04/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY