* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 11/04/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 18 18 17 16 18 20 23 27 32 37 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 18 18 17 16 18 20 23 27 32 37 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 17 16 18 19 24 27 29 24 13 19 20 20 15 SHEAR DIR 236 230 216 233 227 211 202 198 187 152 146 139 146 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 152 154 155 155 156 155 156 156 154 153 150 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 7 8 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 75 72 70 62 66 61 58 50 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 71 70 72 72 76 76 77 49 40 33 23 15 200 MB DIV 87 83 58 48 43 66 57 89 73 51 43 20 4 LAND (KM) 398 404 415 431 448 479 489 493 498 529 567 566 564 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.7 LONG(DEG W) 91.8 92.2 92.6 93.0 93.4 94.1 94.6 94.8 95.0 95.2 95.6 96.1 97.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 1 0 1 6 9 12 13 14 14 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 22. 29. 34. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. 0. 3. 7. 12. 17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 11/04/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 11/04/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY