* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/05/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 68 70 72 70 68 66 64 60 57 55 V (KT) LAND 55 61 52 44 37 30 28 27 28 26 22 20 18 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 56 46 38 30 28 27 30 30 30 32 34 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 11 13 15 17 20 20 13 15 10 17 SHEAR DIR 240 251 245 242 240 239 230 237 259 272 257 273 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 143 144 148 149 151 151 155 153 150 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 135 134 136 138 138 139 138 144 141 137 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 6 7 4 7 5 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 77 77 80 77 80 81 80 76 76 74 77 76 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 11 11 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 43 58 67 71 79 85 93 91 102 82 77 62 65 200 MB DIV 37 35 40 52 77 70 79 73 91 72 48 65 68 LAND (KM) 87 31 -21 -54 -86 -146 -98 -6 72 185 150 99 41 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.3 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.5 18.8 20.0 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 82.8 83.3 83.7 84.0 84.3 84.8 85.1 85.4 85.5 85.8 86.1 86.4 86.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 3 52 53 0 0 0 0 83 86 87 87 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 15. 13. 11. 9. 5. 2. 0. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/05/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/05/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY