* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/05/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 73 73 71 68 66 62 61 59 57 54 V (KT) LAND 65 54 44 37 33 29 30 27 24 23 21 18 16 V (KT) LGE mod 65 54 44 37 33 28 31 30 29 29 30 32 33 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 13 16 17 20 23 19 20 15 16 17 24 SHEAR DIR 204 202 215 222 233 245 242 252 253 253 253 244 236 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 144 144 146 148 150 155 156 153 151 144 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 134 135 136 138 140 144 143 138 135 129 121 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 5 7 5 7 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 79 77 78 78 77 75 78 79 75 75 74 71 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 66 73 83 88 78 86 85 82 75 86 71 66 100 200 MB DIV 52 51 65 66 66 73 68 86 57 56 81 56 65 LAND (KM) -10 -32 -54 -75 -99 -86 24 156 208 161 114 41 96 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.1 15.0 16.1 17.3 18.4 19.4 20.3 21.3 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.2 84.4 84.6 84.8 85.2 85.6 85.9 86.0 86.5 87.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 53 54 55 0 0 17 90 88 90 93 37 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/05/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/05/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY