* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 11/05/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 21 20 19 21 24 27 29 33 36 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 21 20 19 21 22 25 26 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 21 23 23 22 23 22 15 15 18 12 15 17 SHEAR DIR 204 221 222 218 224 218 210 191 193 171 185 171 178 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 154 154 155 156 156 156 154 153 152 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 5 8 6 9 7 10 6 700-500 MB RH 77 74 72 72 71 70 68 65 62 60 58 56 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 76 70 82 78 80 82 78 75 71 58 51 35 200 MB DIV 35 15 31 34 34 55 47 75 69 40 29 28 24 LAND (KM) 380 386 392 381 370 281 164 43 -60 -155 -166 -152 -119 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.8 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.8 12.7 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.4 17.4 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 92.5 92.7 92.8 92.9 93.0 92.6 92.0 91.3 90.8 90.5 90.5 90.5 90.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 4 26 31 28 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 21. 27. 32. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -1. 2. 4. 8. 11. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 11/05/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 11/05/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY