* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/05/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 57 57 57 58 58 60 61 62 61 57 54 V (KT) LAND 55 46 39 34 31 28 32 33 34 36 35 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 55 46 39 34 31 28 31 30 31 32 34 35 34 SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 16 14 15 16 13 13 16 15 22 25 SHEAR DIR 200 204 214 223 238 229 247 238 257 251 244 249 247 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 144 144 146 148 151 155 157 152 144 139 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 133 133 136 138 141 144 146 138 129 123 120 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 8 6 8 6 8 6 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 77 79 79 79 77 81 74 76 72 71 68 63 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 8 10 11 13 13 14 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 71 78 79 71 69 91 70 68 75 77 66 87 144 200 MB DIV 63 69 68 66 65 62 87 95 83 54 64 49 58 LAND (KM) -21 -32 -43 -58 -85 -41 63 190 202 120 52 136 266 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 15.3 16.4 17.6 18.8 20.1 21.5 22.7 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 83.8 83.9 84.0 84.1 84.3 84.4 84.8 85.6 86.1 86.4 86.7 86.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 52 54 55 55 0 77 71 97 93 92 21 27 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. -1. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/05/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/05/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY