* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 11/05/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 20 17 15 16 18 20 20 23 29 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 20 17 15 22 25 26 27 27 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 17 22 25 26 27 27 30 SHEAR (KT) 18 17 22 21 20 26 21 17 11 15 13 11 8 SHEAR DIR 195 207 203 221 227 203 202 184 186 163 173 186 152 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 153 155 157 158 156 155 154 151 149 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 6 6 7 7 9 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 73 69 66 62 62 60 62 62 63 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 9 7 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 73 83 85 87 99 92 84 93 78 77 75 95 200 MB DIV 12 23 20 13 27 27 55 47 27 20 53 29 36 LAND (KM) 384 376 367 335 302 170 4 -137 -81 -116 -86 -70 55 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.6 13.9 15.2 16.3 17.5 18.7 19.6 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 92.6 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.6 91.9 91.1 90.2 89.7 89.3 88.9 88.1 86.8 STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 2 3 4 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 4 6 29 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 21. 28. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -9. -7. -5. -5. -2. 4. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 11/05/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 11/05/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED