* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 11/06/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 18 21 25 26 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 13 19 20 25 25 27 19 14 16 14 21 20 29 SHEAR DIR 201 209 221 216 206 199 194 199 189 174 165 165 153 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 156 156 157 156 154 153 152 151 152 156 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 7 4 7 6 9 6 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 73 74 71 68 67 64 67 63 63 61 59 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 68 80 77 86 98 98 100 91 112 85 81 64 76 200 MB DIV 40 28 5 11 20 26 55 21 8 11 16 20 16 LAND (KM) 351 325 300 233 166 22 -91 -101 -105 -138 -172 -138 -33 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.6 13.7 14.8 15.7 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.3 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 92.3 92.3 92.3 92.1 91.8 91.0 90.3 89.9 89.9 89.9 89.9 89.5 88.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 4 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 5 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 32. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -5. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 11/06/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 11/06/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED