* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/06/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 22 20 20 21 25 33 34 38 39 41 39 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 30 32 36 43 45 48 49 51 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 30 27 26 24 23 22 22 21 19 SHEAR (KT) 15 14 9 12 18 17 18 19 18 18 28 30 52 SHEAR DIR 203 219 219 214 216 240 237 242 241 249 234 231 245 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 28.7 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 146 148 150 153 157 156 146 137 135 135 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 137 139 140 142 145 143 133 122 120 119 111 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.7 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 7 5 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 80 79 76 79 72 73 70 65 60 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 10 10 11 11 13 17 15 16 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 70 65 61 80 77 69 59 80 87 118 131 170 124 200 MB DIV 78 74 77 85 61 66 65 97 53 74 30 64 38 LAND (KM) -58 -85 -53 -10 33 148 252 178 41 109 236 405 315 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.1 17.2 18.3 19.6 21.1 22.5 23.7 25.2 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.0 84.0 84.1 84.2 84.6 85.2 85.7 86.5 87.1 87.6 87.3 86.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 55 0 51 0 19 96 96 94 70 4 11 0 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 25. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. -15. -13. -10. -6. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 3. 4. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -5. 3. 4. 8. 9. 11. 9. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/06/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/06/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY