* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 11/06/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 21 20 17 23 26 26 26 32 31 31 SHEAR (KT) 19 19 17 20 25 18 19 16 18 15 18 17 17 SHEAR DIR 201 219 221 202 196 205 186 170 174 152 163 143 160 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 156 156 157 156 155 155 154 153 154 158 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 7 5 7 6 9 7 9 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 73 73 68 65 65 64 68 62 65 62 64 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 88 88 96 102 86 92 89 88 68 71 76 84 200 MB DIV 22 12 3 20 25 31 24 26 24 32 23 18 12 LAND (KM) 333 291 248 176 111 -14 -133 -34 -6 -10 30 83 255 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.8 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.2 17.9 18.4 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 92.1 92.0 91.8 91.4 90.9 90.0 89.3 88.9 88.6 88.3 87.7 86.8 85.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 6 29 0 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -15. -14. -13. -12. -9. -4. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 11/06/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 11/06/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED