* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/06/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 31 34 38 36 37 37 38 31 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 32 32 34 37 40 38 39 39 40 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 30 30 29 28 27 25 25 24 24 21 SHEAR (KT) 17 12 17 18 18 20 23 24 19 23 30 42 64 SHEAR DIR 209 209 217 227 236 236 235 246 249 223 240 243 251 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 150 151 153 157 156 147 138 135 136 131 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 141 141 141 146 144 134 123 120 120 115 103 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 5 5 7 5 7 5 6 5 3 0 700-500 MB RH 80 79 81 78 78 78 76 73 71 68 61 59 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 11 10 10 12 13 13 13 13 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 68 63 74 67 56 58 62 75 73 101 132 147 84 200 MB DIV 56 61 60 50 61 71 46 61 28 41 73 64 0 LAND (KM) -92 -43 -1 57 115 222 170 51 65 194 348 393 219 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.9 19.5 20.9 22.1 23.3 24.7 26.2 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 84.2 84.3 84.3 84.5 84.6 85.1 85.8 86.4 87.1 87.4 87.5 87.0 86.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 7 8 7 6 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 51 1 62 93 94 92 89 2 11 0 10 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 6. 7. 7. 8. 1. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/06/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/06/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY