* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 11/06/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 24 21 21 20 20 20 21 21 23 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 24 19 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 30 29 28 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 19 20 20 27 24 13 14 17 18 23 19 22 25 SHEAR DIR 216 209 203 197 198 183 164 151 155 172 175 163 164 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 155 156 157 155 155 154 153 151 153 156 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 4 8 5 9 6 9 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 73 69 66 64 66 66 65 63 65 62 62 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 88 91 93 95 86 76 70 73 61 50 36 27 14 200 MB DIV 6 -16 -1 -3 -2 15 9 10 23 30 3 -19 -4 LAND (KM) 294 249 204 155 104 -5 -111 -77 -67 -124 -158 -116 -28 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.7 14.6 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.3 17.3 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 91.9 91.7 91.4 91.0 90.6 90.0 89.6 89.5 89.6 89.7 89.7 89.3 88.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 2 1 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 3 13 32 0 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -7. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 11/06/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 11/06/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY