* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/07/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 36 40 43 42 42 39 39 29 18 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 36 40 43 42 42 39 39 29 18 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 25 23 19 DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 19 17 23 21 23 34 45 54 69 62 SHEAR DIR 223 229 240 246 241 251 250 249 245 242 243 253 250 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.5 27.9 27.8 27.2 26.6 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 155 157 156 144 136 134 125 117 116 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 143 145 146 145 132 123 119 108 100 99 104 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -54.1 -54.6 -55.0 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 5 6 4 3 2 3 1 2 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 77 78 76 73 71 68 63 52 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 13 14 19 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 69 61 58 64 69 74 97 90 95 97 89 89 72 200 MB DIV 79 67 76 72 77 36 79 51 74 69 87 -7 -21 LAND (KM) 32 78 141 203 266 178 10 181 411 294 275 238 225 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.6 21.3 23.2 25.3 26.8 27.6 27.6 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 83.9 84.1 84.3 84.7 85.0 85.7 86.8 87.6 88.1 87.8 86.9 85.9 84.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 9 10 10 9 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 3 90 101 107 109 97 14 9 10 15 9 6 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -22. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 6. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 12. 12. 10. 9. -1. -12. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/07/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 82.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/07/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY