* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 11/07/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 22 21 21 20 20 20 19 19 20 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 22 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 18 24 21 18 14 15 20 22 25 27 30 30 32 SHEAR DIR 190 192 196 190 167 155 139 154 178 183 188 198 205 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 155 156 156 155 154 154 154 155 156 158 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 8 8 6 9 7 9 6 8 5 7 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 60 63 63 57 55 54 55 56 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 94 86 80 85 77 63 40 17 -26 -37 -43 -63 200 MB DIV 1 2 -4 10 6 -14 -15 -16 -4 -21 -18 -12 -17 LAND (KM) 215 161 111 70 30 -44 -116 -132 -105 -46 -24 -37 -10 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.1 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 91.4 91.2 90.9 90.8 90.6 90.5 90.9 91.5 92.4 93.6 94.9 96.1 97.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 25 36 37 21 34 33 32 29 38 31 45 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 11/07/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 11/07/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED