* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/07/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 48 52 54 54 51 47 39 30 20 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 48 52 54 54 51 47 39 30 20 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 39 40 41 40 40 38 35 29 22 SHEAR (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 20 27 17 30 48 60 71 67 SHEAR DIR 236 244 252 248 254 267 260 244 247 236 245 253 264 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.0 28.2 27.9 27.3 26.6 26.5 26.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 157 159 159 152 140 135 126 117 116 119 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 146 148 147 140 129 122 110 99 99 101 107 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.8 -54.5 -55.0 -55.7 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 4 2 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 79 78 74 72 65 57 48 36 32 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 50 53 65 64 82 101 135 119 137 111 120 57 200 MB DIV 68 86 93 99 52 77 74 69 59 46 9 -10 -38 LAND (KM) 113 176 239 293 246 106 132 356 300 234 242 279 295 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.3 20.7 22.7 24.8 26.7 27.7 27.7 27.2 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.2 84.4 84.8 85.1 85.9 87.0 87.8 87.9 87.5 86.4 85.7 85.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 10 11 10 7 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 97 106 113 114 115 95 7 6 14 9 6 13 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -16. -23. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 19. 16. 12. 4. -5. -15. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/07/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 109.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/07/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY