* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 11/07/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 23 23 21 20 18 18 19 22 26 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 22 22 15 7 8 10 15 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 190 208 218 203 181 152 162 173 184 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 156 157 156 156 154 152 151 150 151 152 154 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 8 8 7 9 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 64 63 66 60 58 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 87 81 74 77 68 50 6 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 0 0 4 0 -24 -5 -8 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 178 128 78 21 -34 -133 -128 -201 -144 -133 -159 -98 -7 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.1 15.1 16.1 16.8 17.3 17.4 17.1 16.5 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 91.1 90.9 90.6 90.4 90.1 90.0 90.2 90.7 91.4 92.1 92.6 93.1 93.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 34 36 16 44 31 0 0 0 0 26 27 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. -8. -4. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 11/07/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 11/07/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY