* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/07/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 63 66 67 68 63 58 53 48 43 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 63 66 67 68 63 58 53 48 43 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 56 58 59 58 56 53 47 41 36 32 SHEAR (KT) 17 19 17 16 19 20 25 31 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 247 240 254 247 244 240 238 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 159 159 156 144 137 132 123 117 113 116 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 148 147 145 133 123 115 106 100 96 99 109 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 5 5 6 5 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 78 75 73 68 59 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 12 14 20 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 44 52 56 60 78 99 111 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 78 75 40 57 84 78 69 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 177 252 317 261 188 75 271 402 281 266 191 219 228 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.1 21.9 24.0 25.7 27.0 27.7 28.0 27.5 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 84.1 84.3 84.5 84.9 85.3 86.4 87.4 87.9 87.7 86.9 85.7 85.0 84.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 11 10 8 5 5 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 107 114 118 118 107 20 10 6 16 8 2 7 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 22. 24. 18. 13. 8. 3. -2. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/07/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 112.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/07/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY