* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/07/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 74 77 80 80 79 75 66 53 40 28 19 V (KT) LAND 60 68 74 77 80 80 79 75 66 53 40 28 19 V (KT) LGE mod 60 69 75 78 78 76 71 65 57 48 38 30 22 SHEAR (KT) 19 18 21 22 17 24 23 33 49 62 64 67 54 SHEAR DIR 248 246 242 247 255 257 240 235 225 238 252 266 279 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.1 27.6 26.3 25.1 24.8 25.4 25.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 155 149 139 132 116 104 100 106 109 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 148 144 139 128 118 101 89 85 90 93 95 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -54.1 -55.2 -55.9 -56.4 -56.9 -57.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 5 6 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 75 75 74 67 63 63 55 46 30 26 20 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 48 47 54 79 92 137 107 102 75 37 -6 -35 200 MB DIV 95 93 52 53 75 86 105 97 38 2 -17 -54 -54 LAND (KM) 298 294 222 143 103 229 364 169 136 108 101 147 152 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.4 23.6 26.0 28.0 29.2 29.5 28.9 28.4 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 84.1 84.4 84.7 85.3 85.9 87.2 88.1 88.1 87.3 86.6 85.9 85.1 84.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 10 11 13 11 8 5 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 114 113 113 103 95 12 13 5 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -13. -20. -26. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 18. 20. 20. 19. 15. 6. -7. -20. -32. -41. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/07/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 107.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/07/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY